Technology Predictions Are Mostly Bunk says L. GORDON CROVITZ of the Wall Street Journal.
Crovitz’ article lists some of the funniest (or saddest depending on your point of view) technology predictions of years past.
Two of our favorites:
“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys,” Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the British Post Office, 1878.
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home,” Ken Olsen, founder of mainframe-producer Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
All kidding aside, Crovitz makes this excellent point, “The more we invent, the more we invent. Knowledge grows on itself.”
Most of us grew up watching some version of a show based on what the future might be like. Maybe it was Jetsons, Star Trek, or even Futurama. Our cultural obsession with the future is a result of our inability to control or predict it with high amounts of accuracy.
When the invention known as the internet first emerged, the world had no idea how great the impact would be on every aspect of our lives. Getting an entire education online? No way! Being able to communicate and collaborate with people from all over the world with the touch of a button? Impossible! Sounds silly now, but let’s not forget it wasn’t that long ago that earth was thought to be flat!
Cell phones provide another great example of the speed of technology evolution and understanding. The evolution of cell phones from something that had to be carted around to now an item that is so small it gets lost easily is incredible. The smart alecs may be thinking, “but of course they did!” But as the quotes above illustrate, predicting the future of technology is near impossible. Its incredible how many kids under the age of 12 have a cell phone, multiple social networking site profiles, and are more tech savvy then their parents and teachers.
Technology, if given the right environment, will continue to evolve.
After all, we’re still hoping for many of the technologies advertised in our favorite sci-fi movies and shows!
Cheers to a Wisconsin in 2010 that welcomes tech innovation and development with Future Thinking Technology Policies!